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Post by jamnjon on Feb 17, 2023 13:31:16 GMT -8
Odd as it is to say, I'd love for us to finish last to ensure we'd pick no lower than 3rd in the draft, but I don't think that happens. And thanks to some recent education from jamnjon, I wouldn't feel great about us finishing 2nd because apparently there's a great chance we would fall to 4th. So, my hope is Anaheim surpasses us and we manage to fall to 3rd, and perhaps we'll be one of those lucky teams who snags a lottery spot. Keep in mind my point about a strong chance of falling to 4th stands for pretty much every lottery slot, so there's still absolutely reason to try to get as far down as possible. Last place has an 18.8% chance of falling to 2nd and a 55.7% chance of falling to 3rd, 2nd to last has a 32% chance of falling to 3rd and a 40.2% chance of falling to 4th, 3rd to last has a 40.7% chance of falling to 4th and a 28.8% chance of falling to 5th, 4th to last has a 44.9% chance of falling to 5th and a 20.5% chance of falling to 6th, 5th to last has a 44.2% chance of falling to 6th and a 13.9% chance of falling to 7th, 6th to last has a 41.4% chance of falling to 7th and a 9.1% chance of falling to 8th. All of the top 6 positions are more likely to fall than to stay put or climb. |
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NB Finfan
Draft Eligible
Seal'd in Teal
Posts: 28
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Post by NB Finfan on Feb 17, 2023 14:35:38 GMT -8
But if we lost EK65 and Timo for next year, it's hard to see a return for them that would make us a better team than this year in the next few years even if the above things happen. Laughing because this statement has stirred up the neo-FtF natives including myself.
I've stated in previous posts that I am opposed to trading either of these two players. It will create a vacuum in our scoring I don't think we will be able to replace for several years. This will also reduce our team leadership.
I think of the winning culture that was built through Patty and Jumbo. Now they are gone along with Pavs and Burns leaving us with Couture, Vlasic, Hertl, Meier, and to a smaller degree Karlsson from that era. If you move Erik and Timo, what are the chances that Logon and MEV decide they want one more shot at the cup and ask to go too. So who's left then, Hertl. Restoring that culture will be extremely difficult if this occurs.
The Sharks have a decent legacy in place. I would rather see Hertl, Timo, and Erik here when its time for Logan and Vlasic to move on. Then the legacy gets passed on to Bordeleau, Eklund, and the newer draft pics.
One more point I want to make is losing Timo and Erik will certainly put this team into a losing tailspin. This will be very difficult to reverse with a roster full of rookies. No, I think losing your two top players puts this team into a complete rebuild that will take 5 years or more to get back to where it was.
All I have to say is I am glad I am not in GMMG's shoes because this is a very difficult position to be in.
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Post by briancpalmer on Feb 17, 2023 19:32:21 GMT -8
CHI with the come-from-behind victory in OT!
Now we just need Anaheim to show some pride and take out the Kings!
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Post by tcsharkie11 on Feb 17, 2023 21:38:13 GMT -8
O'Reilly and Achari to Toronto. Used Minnesota as a 3rd team for retention and gave up a 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th.
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Post by tcsharkie11 on Feb 17, 2023 21:38:31 GMT -8
O'Reilly and Achari to Toronto. Used Minnesota as a 3rd team for retention and gave up a 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th.
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Post by seiched on Feb 17, 2023 22:58:55 GMT -8
But if we lost EK65 and Timo for next year, it's hard to see a return for them that would make us a better team than this year in the next few years even if the above things happen. Laughing because this statement has stirred up the neo-FtF natives including myself.
I've stated in previous posts that I am opposed to trading either of these two players. It will create a vacuum in our scoring I don't think we will be able to replace for several years. This will also reduce our team leadership.
I think of the winning culture that was built through Patty and Jumbo. Now they are gone along with Pavs and Burns leaving us with Couture, Vlasic, Hertl, Meier, and to a smaller degree Karlsson from that era. If you move Erik and Timo, what are the chances that Logon and MEV decide they want one more shot at the cup and ask to go too. So who's left then, Hertl. Restoring that culture will be extremely difficult if this occurs.
The Sharks have a decent legacy in place. I would rather see Hertl, Timo, and Erik here when its time for Logan and Vlasic to move on. Then the legacy gets passed on to Bordeleau, Eklund, and the newer draft pics.
One more point I want to make is losing Timo and Erik will certainly put this team into a losing tailspin. This will be very difficult to reverse with a roster full of rookies. No, I think losing your two top players puts this team into a complete rebuild that will take 5 years or more to get back to where it was.
All I have to say is I am glad I am not in GMMG's shoes because this is a very difficult position to be in.
The current state of the Sharks is that it will take 5+ years before we are a decent contender almost no matter what we do. Anyone who thinks differently has to come to reality, including management, owner, but hopefully not GMMG. I agree, losing your 2 best players will send the Sharks to the literal basement and make the team almost unwatchable, but you can't rise again until you fall hard in this league. The hard salary cap makes it that way, unless you take advantage like TB or FV. The Sharks are in the middle of the pack of crap teams. The current assets/prospects don't really excite me, because I know the odds are against them to be actual difference makers at the NHL level. Also, the culture you refer to never won a cup. Countless failed playoffs runs versus less skilled teams. I am not sure we need to transfer the culture to the next generation. |
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Post by dilacerated on Feb 18, 2023 8:19:53 GMT -8
O'Reilly and Achari to Toronto. Used Minnesota as a 3rd team for retention and gave up a 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Race to the bottom game is being played by our opponents. We need to get with the program! |
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Post by unshorkable on Feb 18, 2023 9:23:22 GMT -8
Hopefully, MG can strike the right balance between holding out for the right deals versus holding out so long that all suitors look elsewhere. As much as I want to hear about some fantastic trades now, I think it could potentially be quite bad for his budding reputation as a GM if MG made a series of weak deals for two of the hottest trade possibilities this season. Related note, I found the following THN article to be interesting. The take that if MG gets a great haul for Timo and Karl, then the Sharks could become Cup contenders was exciting to read, although Proteau doesn’t go into rosterbation to try to substantiate that projection. thehockeynews.com/news/all-eyes-are-on-the-san-jose-sharks-depth-of-tradeable-talent |
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Post by tcsharkie11 on Feb 18, 2023 10:58:04 GMT -8
It seems like Timo is coming down to Carolina and Jersey. It's an arms race in the East.
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Post by tcsharkie11 on Feb 18, 2023 11:03:09 GMT -8
Hopefully, MG can strike the right balance between holding out for the right deals versus holding out so long that all suitors look elsewhere. As much as I want to hear about some fantastic trades now, I think it could potentially be quite bad for his budding reputation as a GM if MG made a series of weak deals for two of the hottest trade possibilities this season. Related note, I found the following THN article to be interesting. The take that if MG gets a great haul for Timo and Karl, then the Sharks could become Cup contenders was exciting to read, although Proteau doesn’t go into rosterbation to try to substantiate that projection. thehockeynews.com/news/all-eyes-are-on-the-san-jose-sharks-depth-of-tradeable-talentIt's exciting and probably more hopeful that things are out in motion for the future. I'd add Bonino at a minimum to the list and hold out hope that Cooch will go. You could always get something for Lindblom potentially |
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Post by jamnjon on Feb 18, 2023 11:11:20 GMT -8
I think you misinterpreted what they said. The emphasis was mine but he was saying that if somehow a very good team was able to add Timo, Karl, and Optimus Reim they'd become a cup front-runner. Even if they're only able to add one of Timo or Karl it will likely lead to them being in that discussion. |
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Post by tcsharkie11 on Feb 18, 2023 12:23:56 GMT -8
Any thought that Carolina is holding off on a trade until after the Outdoor game so they don't take away from the event?
Also I've not seen, despite the discussion, of what player/prospects both Carolina and Jersey would offer besides the 1st rounder?
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Post by jamnjon on Feb 18, 2023 13:57:23 GMT -8
Any thought that Carolina is holding off on a trade until after the Outdoor game so they don't take away from the event? Also I've not seen, despite the discussion, of what player/prospects both Carolina and Jersey would offer besides the 1st rounder? SJHN has a paywalled article about just that, but I don't have access. However, there was a Locked on Sharks episode with a few proposed trades the other day and they had Frank Seravalli's proposal of Scott Morrow (116th - middle of the lineup player - on the most recent listing of top 154 drafted players/prospects under 23 on The Athletic from last month), Jack Drury (failed to make the top 154 this time though he was in a previous one), a 24 2nd and a 23 1st from Carolina. From the Devils he had Sheng's propsal of Shakhir Mukhamadullin, Alexander Holtz, and a 2023 1st. The Athletic has an article up with some proposals too: Meier and a 2023 fourth-round pick for LHD prospect Alexander Nikishin (number 22 on the aforementioned list), C prospect Ryan Suzuki (unlisted) and Carolina’s 2023 first-round pick. Meier (50 percent retained) for RW Alexander Holtz, a 2023 first-round pick, RD Seamus Casey, a 2024 fourth-round pick and Andreas Johnsson. I've seen Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec mentioned from the Devils but often immediately mentioned as nonstarters. I've seen Seth Jarvis mentioned from Carolina and Dawson Mercer from New Jersey as well. |
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Post by caopine on Feb 18, 2023 15:02:05 GMT -8
I know it's impossible to say because we don't know what we would get back from Timo or if EK65 is going to be here. But as a baseline if they were both around, it's easy to see with a few things falling into place that we could merely be a bad team next year that just misses the playoffs. Bords and Eklund step up. Luck with knyzhov returning and maybe Kniazev steps up. We get one good cheap pickup like Eyssimont. Kahko/Reimer end up being a good duo. I know that is a lot of if's, but it makes the urgency to go for bottom three even stronger this year- not just because of the Bedard sweepstakes. But if we lost EK65 and Timo for next year, it's hard to see a return for them that would make us a better team than this year in the next few years even if the above things happen. Yeah, it doesn't make sense to trade EK65/Timo if our goal is to be competitive in the next year or 2. Those are very good players and freeing up cap space doesn't automatically make it worthwhile. That's especially true if we're retaining cap on EK65 (retaining on Timo doesn't really matter since it would be gone after this year). If we retain 50% on EK65 we're paying $5.75M for him to not play for us, so we're essentially adding that price to anybody that replaces him. It's unlikely we're going to get someone better than either of them with the trade, but the idea is we'll get people who are close in value and match up better with our timeline. Assuming we're trying to compete in 4 seasons, would you rather your core be built around a 30 year old Timo or a few prospects in their early to mid 20s? At 30 it's not terrible but not the best, but how about a 36 year old Karlsson? I don't know if I'm doing this quoting/reply thing right...
Yeah- good points on this. I guess it depends on what we mean by competing. Don't see competing for a cup in four seasons. As such, it's hard to stomach watching the sharks without Timo and EK65.
Short-term vs long-term incentives are funny as applied to coaches and GM's. Coaches want to win now. It feels like Quinn has less pressure on him this season on that front. But in general, take Pete DeBoer. He was going to run Burns and anyone else into the ground to try to save his job. GM's who probably shouldn't be buyers at the deadline are often buyers at the deadline. Job preservation mode often leads to doing things that are not rational if the goal is to maximize probability of a Cup.
And yeah as a fan, I look at these complete tear-down rebuilds and all of Edmonton's #1 picks, and at least now we get to see some brilliant hockey with EK65. But I know that's not rational for the long-term goals, but part of me is also irrational as a fan.
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Post by jamnjon on Feb 18, 2023 15:24:14 GMT -8
Short-term vs long-term incentives are funny as applied to coaches and GM's. Coaches want to win now. It feels like Quinn has less pressure on him this season on that front. But in general, take Pete DeBoer. He was going to run Burns and anyone else into the ground to try to save his job. GM's who probably shouldn't be buyers at the deadline are often buyers at the deadline. Job preservation mode often leads to doing things that are not rational if the goal is to maximize probability of a Cup.
I've said in the past that guys like Dubas could more easily make trades like grabbing Karlsson despite the long term risk because if they fail to have a significant playoff run (at a minimum getting out of the first round) he's likely fired and if he wins they won't care that he screwed up some of their future, however there was one thing I was neglecting to factor in. If owners see that on your way out you're making decisions that screw over the team in the long run, they're less likely to hire you for future GM gigs. |
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