NB Finfan
Draft Eligible
Seal'd in Teal
Posts: 28
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Post by NB Finfan on Feb 27, 2023 18:14:56 GMT -8
Sheng has an article up. Sounds like Karlsson isn't happy about this trade. Article says EK said he still wants to win a cup and this trade is going to take a while to get there. Oilers wanted Sharks to retain 40% of his contract. That doesn't help the Sharks much with their cap problems. If EK wants to play with a contender in the near future he is going to have to prove his contract is worth more than 60%.
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Post by SurfCitySharksFan on Feb 27, 2023 19:05:18 GMT -8
Oilers wanted Sharks to retain 40% of his contract. If Edmonton wants Karl, they'll need to find a 3rd team that will retain at least half of that 40%. The Sharks retaining more than 20% would be stupid for the Sharks cap.
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Post by jamnjon on Feb 27, 2023 19:09:38 GMT -8
Oilers wanted Sharks to retain 40% of his contract. If Edmonton wants Karl, they'll need to find a 3rd team that will retain at least half of that 40%. The Sharks retaining more than 20% would be stupid for the Sharks cap. I'd argue it depends on their offer. Ideally we're not out the extra $2.3M in cap space from the bonus 20% for the rest of his deal, but if we're getting an extra first and second or something comparable for it then it might be worth considering. (I don't know if that's the right price for 4 and change years of $2.3M but I'd rather us get the return than a random other team.) If we're going to do something better with the space then great, let's do it, but if not I'd rather have the assets.
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Post by NashvilleShark on Feb 27, 2023 19:32:39 GMT -8
If Edmonton wants Karl, they'll need to find a 3rd team that will retain at least half of that 40%. The Sharks retaining more than 20% would be stupid for the Sharks cap. I'd argue it depends on their offer. Ideally we're not out the extra $2.3M in cap space from the bonus 20% for the rest of his deal, but if we're getting an extra first and second or something comparable for it then it might be worth considering. (I don't know if that's the right price for 4 and change years of $2.3M but I'd rather us get the return than a random other team.) If we're going to do something better with the space then great, let's do it, but if not I'd rather have the assets. I think SJ could get away with 30% retention, then toss one of the assets Grier just picked up for Timo - like that late round pick next year - to a second team to carry the other 10%. That way SJ is on the hook for only $3.45M for the next 4 years and gets a hair over $8M in cap space back. PLUS...they'd get players and another 2023 first. Sadly though, Grier appears to have dropped the ball on Karl being moved before Friday. Yet another apparent rookie GM mistake?
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Post by Mr Tea on Feb 27, 2023 20:43:19 GMT -8
"Sadly though, Grier appears to have dropped the ball on Karl being moved before Friday. Yet another apparent rookie GM mistake?"
Impossible to call it a mistake without knowing what was discussed with other GMs.
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Post by briancpalmer on Feb 27, 2023 22:27:33 GMT -8
Sadly though, Grier appears to have dropped the ball on Karl being moved before Friday. Yet another apparent rookie GM mistake? Possibly, but there's always a chance these talks could be revisited in time for EDM to make a move on draft day, so we may yet get ourselves a third 1st in this year's draft, and that's nothing to sneeze at. Time will tell.
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Post by seiched on Feb 27, 2023 23:54:34 GMT -8
Sadly though, Grier appears to have dropped the ball on Karl being moved before Friday. Yet another apparent rookie GM mistake? Possibly, but there's always a chance these talks could be revisited in time for EDM to make a move on draft day, so we may yet get ourselves a third 1st in this year's draft, and that's nothing to sneeze at. Time will tell. Maybe...GMMG still using the language "you'll be surprised how quickly we turn things around"....like wtf is that, does he mean that yes it won't take 10 years to contend again, only 5? with that kind of mentality he isn't retaining a lot in an EK65 trade and even in the offseason it will be near impossible to move him. EK65's value is highest right now, EDM is desperate but I guess we aren't desperate enough to rebuild and we shall take a hope and pray approach and either be dumb and blind when it comes to our chances or just blow smoke up fans asses that things will turn around quickly....
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Post by sonofsnowshower2 on Feb 28, 2023 7:48:33 GMT -8
An excerpt from LeBrun's piece on Meier trade (and Jeannot trade, too, but I don't care about that one).
"What a grind. It’s the first thing that comes to mind when I think about the amount of work Sharks GM Mike Grier and his staff put into this process over the past few weeks. Did they ultimately choose the right package in going with New Jersey over the final offers from Vegas and Carolina? I mean, let’s revisit that in five years. But there’s no denying Grier explored the market thoroughly."
That's my view on it. The Sharks might not have gotten a great return, but when you're in cap trouble and trying to re-build, shit happens.
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Post by sonofsnowshower2 on Feb 28, 2023 7:51:39 GMT -8
Re the return of the original FtF - I'm still a Clash fan - should I stay or should I go?
Jamnjon, sincere thanks for setting this up. My 2¢ worth on this is to go back to the FtF site, but keep this open somehow as a back-up so we (in reality you) don't have to re-invent the wheel.
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NB Finfan
Draft Eligible
Seal'd in Teal
Posts: 28
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Post by NB Finfan on Feb 28, 2023 8:07:10 GMT -8
Re the return of the original FtF - I'm still a Clash fan - should I stay or should I go? Jamnjon, sincere thanks for setting this up. My 2¢ worth on this is to go back to the FtF site, but keep this open somehow as a back-up so we (in reality you) don't have to re-invent the wheel. I plan to go to wherever there is a new post. If that means both sites for now so be it.
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Post by bellizar on Feb 28, 2023 11:52:22 GMT -8
Does anyone know how they determine the draft order of the losers in each round? Draft order is as follows: 1-16: Teams that miss the playoffs in reverse order of the standings, lottery slightly tweaks. 17-X: Teams that made the playoffs, did not win their division in the regular season, and did not reach the conference final in the reverse order of the regular season standings. X-28: Teams that won their division in the regular season and did not reach the conference final in the reverse order of regular season standings 29-30: Teams that lost in the conference final in reverse order of regular season standings 31: Stanley Cup loser 32: Stanley Cup winner. Looking at the trade it seems like it would be "Hey you're getting Timo Meier and that's all we are giving up". Why are the Sharks needing to trade all the other prospects to make it happen? Did the Devils say "Ooooh, this looks good, but it seems a bit lopsided unless we get a handful of your other guys"? Don't worry about those, they're not really a part of the trade. The Sharks were at 49/50 contracts. Emond was playing in the ECHL and had been passed by several players on the depth chart, he wasn't getting a qualifying offer. Ibragimov was also in Wichita of the ECHL and likely in the same boat (I'm less familiar with his performance). I expect that they'll stay in Wichita and leave at the end of the season via free agency, no real change for them other than who signs the checks. I know there was a bit of hype around Santeri though I think he's underwhelmed this year. I haven't really followed his performance, though I know there were some injuries so he's only played 8 games this year. Jamjon i will be unpopular and negaitve for a while feel free to bann me. I definitely don't intend to ban people for being negative. Ideally I want to do zero moderation. As long as you're reasonably respectful of the other members while being negative I won't be doing anything. Pretty much only if something starts to come across as harassment and people have asked you to stop but you refuse to. I'm kind of leaning towards hoping the Devils lose in the ECF this year and we end up with pick 29 from that, then they somehow fall way off so in 2024 it's the 10th pick and gets deferred to 2025 where it's first overall. I know that won't happen, but I can dream! This is the dream that NJ crashes and burn next year and sadly this is the only way this trade could be good. Btw don't get why Hataka was in there but what ever now the funny thing will be when/if he makes the NHL and plays more games then Shakir or Nikita for us xDDDD
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Post by bellizar on Feb 28, 2023 12:04:06 GMT -8
Timo is the first domino to fall. Karl will most likely be moved over the summer when it will be easier to make a deal from a financial stand point. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cooch moved either this summer or by next season's TDL. Grier is going to try and shed long term, high dollar commitments. As much as it pains me to say it, I wish the previous interim GM didn't sign Hertl to an extension. He's not had that great of a season, and I'm hoping it's just an off year for him. However, if his play over the last 2-3 months is any indication of what he's going to be like long term? ugh... The return on Timo seems pretty underwhelming. NJ gets a proven player, SJ gets a low first this year, a probable low second next year, a middle six projected F, and a couple of prospects that even NJ projects to be B-C level. Wow... I commented in the Preds game day thread that Grier was probably going to begin to gut the roster and that he'd probably be doing the right thing. While it might be the right thing to do, I'm questioning Grier's ability to get decent returns on the team's players. I lost faith in Grier's all abilities like talent valuation, negotiation, planning … actualy analyzing his work i can't say any postivies yet (maybe signing sturm but if the retool was the plan then that doesn't make any sence either). Like his plan was lets sign this guys and we will see what happens... oh this don't work okay sell than and get maybe something usefull..... thats so scarry wow. I hope at least he got a decent staff that can draft… or we are screwed.
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Post by bellizar on Feb 28, 2023 12:09:36 GMT -8
Well if this isn't a shot across the bow to the remaining Sharks with "move clause" contracts that their chance of a cup in a teal sweater is not likely anytime soon then I don't know what is. Will this make them more receptive to a move? Time will tell. One thing to keep in mind is the assets we accrued in this trade may be used to acquire future assets and may not be part of the Sharks long term plans. My conclusion is we are in the tear down phase of a rebuild and don't know what the build phase looks like yet. My assumption at the moment is the plan is build from the net out and to get younger and faster. I agree this is a tear down but in an unimaginable stupid way, thats dugs a bigger whole.. About the build My assumption is Grier has two thing in mind in need big guys who compete and don't care about the rest.
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Post by sonofsnowshower2 on Feb 28, 2023 12:09:53 GMT -8
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Post by SurfCitySharksFan on Feb 28, 2023 12:14:41 GMT -8
Patrick Kane finally got traded to the Rangers. Chicago retains 50%, another team retains 50% of that. Chicago gets a 2023 2nd rounder (conditional, could upgrade to a 1st), and a 2023 4th rounder.
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Post by bellizar on Feb 28, 2023 12:19:42 GMT -8
There were basically 4 paths forward with Timo. Sign him to a big $8M+, 8 year extension; Sign him to a $10M, 1 year qualifying offer; Trade him at the deadline; or trade him before the draft. The first gets us yet another big long contract (imagine the uproar). The second cripples the cap for next year and puts us in the same place this time next year. The fourth choice puts us in even less of a bargaining position than we were right now. Since all indications were that the Sharks had no plan on doing the 1st or the 2nd choice (and all the other GMs knew that), the bargaining position was weak to start with. Then it was basically choose the best offer from the 3-4 teams that sounded interested in Timo. It would be interesting to see what the other teams offered up compared to NJ. If we had wise GM 2 things should have been on the table, sign Timo for 8 years or trade to team who will sign him for 8 years and get a price accordingly to that. IF the second option is not goo enough money well spent we have 30 year old first line winger four years from now who will be a decent 30goal scorer/point per game player and when we can compete again. 31-32-33 years old Timo should be still decent to be at least a second line winger he has like 4 year window to compete for the cup. and that is the worst case scenario for the sharks. instead Grier was stupid to rule out the resing option and shot himself in the foot and traded his Gun for a used bandage.... well done....
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Post by bellizar on Feb 28, 2023 12:25:28 GMT -8
I don't know guys i am starting lose my mind here.
Anaheim get: 2024 3rd round pick (SJS)
Sharks get:Henry Thrun
Another bottom six 7th dman for future assets no problem he is BIG !!!
Someone pls shoot me.
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Post by bellizar on Feb 28, 2023 12:31:05 GMT -8
There's always a naysayer in every bunch, but not this time. Devils' fans are universally ecstatic about this trade. They've every reason to be. Fitzgerald won this for them. I would accept a win for NJ but this is first hit K.O for them we were not in the match for 1 minute... lol.
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Post by bellizar on Feb 28, 2023 12:33:16 GMT -8
Patrick Kane finally got traded to the Rangers. Chicago retains 50%, another team retains 50% of that. Chicago gets a 2023 2nd rounder (conditional, could upgrade to a 1st), and a 2023 4th rounder. Rangers overpayed a bit thats fine.
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Post by jamnjon on Feb 28, 2023 12:38:32 GMT -8
I don't know guys i am starting lose my mind here. Anaheim get: 2024 3rd round pick (SJS) Sharks get:Henry Thrun Another bottom six 7th dman for future assets no problem he is BIG !!! Someone pls shoot me. I've posted this several times before, but the Sharks have pretty much always been atrocious in the third round. The odds that whoever they pick with the 2024 third are very slim, so potentially finding out that they failed with their pick a bit earlier isn't too big of a deal to me.
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NB Finfan
Draft Eligible
Seal'd in Teal
Posts: 28
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Post by NB Finfan on Feb 28, 2023 13:18:54 GMT -8
I don't know guys i am starting lose my mind here. Anaheim get: 2024 3rd round pick (SJS) Sharks get:Henry Thrun Another bottom six 7th dman for future assets no problem he is BIG !!! Someone pls shoot me. There is no doubt that losing Timo sucks. I don't like it either but its done. I am trying to remove my emotion from this trade and trying to view from GMMG's perspective by reading articles from other analysts.
Looking back, this team has not made the playoffs since they signed Karlsson to his new contract. The combination of limited cap space and underwhelming talent in the pipeline has prevented the team from filling in the necessary gaps to continue to compete.
Now ask yourself, would Couture have the same role if he were playing in EDM, COL, Tampa, or any other top contender. I don't think so. The role he would play on those teams would be middle six and about $3m less in salary. Would MEV fit in any of those teams?
The reality is big contracts need to bring more than what we are getting from our big contracts. So what I believe GMMG's is doing is collecting assets that are either easy to move in the future or develop into NHL talent while those big contracts age off the books.
The direction the league is trending is to younger, faster, more creative players. The top talent on our Sharks are dinosaurs in comparison. I hate to say that but that is what we have and our record testifies to it. What we have is DW's legacy and GMMG needs change it.
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Post by NashvilleShark on Feb 28, 2023 13:39:13 GMT -8
I don't know guys i am starting lose my mind here. Anaheim get: 2024 3rd round pick (SJS) Sharks get:Henry Thrun Another bottom six 7th dman for future assets no problem he is BIG !!! Someone pls shoot me. There is no doubt that losing Timo sucks. I don't like it either but its done. I am trying to remove my emotion from this trade and trying to view from GMMG's perspective by reading articles from other analysts.
Looking back, this team has not made the playoffs since they signed Karlsson to his new contract. The combination of limited cap space and underwhelming talent in the pipeline has prevented the team from filling in the necessary gaps to continue to compete.
Now ask yourself, would Couture have the same role if he were playing in EDM, COL, Tampa, or any other top contender. I don't think so. The role he would play on those teams would be middle six and about $3m less in salary. Would MEV fit in any of those teams?
The reality is big contracts need to bring more than what we are getting from our big contracts. So what I believe GMMG's is doing is collecting assets that are either easy to move in the future or develop into NHL talent while those big contracts age off the books.
The direction the league is trending is to younger, faster, more creative players. The top talent on our Sharks are dinosaurs in comparison. I hate to say that but that is what we have and our record testifies to it. What we have is DW's legacy and GMMG needs change it.
Well reasoned and grounded comment NB. This team is now in the end stages of the "old regime's" decisions and agreements. What we're all witnessing is the "be careful what you ask for" results of a true rebuild. People, including myself, wanted DW to step down when the team's performance began to degrade. We wanted new coaches to "fix" whatever ailed the team. Well, check and check. Here we are, and the team has been in a downward spiral ever since. While I still believe the return for Timo is at first glance underwhelming, we really won't know how it looks until 2-3 years from now. I can only hope that SJ doesn't end up being the next AZ Coyotes, perpetually going through resets/refreshes/retools - or whatever the hell SJ Management wants to call it - and never achieving a return to relevance.
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Post by bellizar on Feb 28, 2023 13:53:58 GMT -8
I don't know guys i am starting lose my mind here. Anaheim get: 2024 3rd round pick (SJS) Sharks get:Henry Thrun Another bottom six 7th dman for future assets no problem he is BIG !!! Someone pls shoot me. I've posted this several times before, but the Sharks have pretty much always been atrocious in the third round. The odds that whoever they pick with the 2024 third are very slim, so potentially finding out that they failed with their pick a bit earlier isn't too big of a deal to me. I really hope we have staff now that can draft so that trend changes. XD Btw Linus Karlsson was good a pick in the third and I have high hopes for Guschin.
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Post by bellizar on Feb 28, 2023 14:59:58 GMT -8
There is no doubt that losing Timo sucks. I don't like it either but its done. I am trying to remove my emotion from this trade and trying to view from GMMG's perspective by reading articles from other analysts.
Looking back, this team has not made the playoffs since they signed Karlsson to his new contract. The combination of limited cap space and underwhelming talent in the pipeline has prevented the team from filling in the necessary gaps to continue to compete.
Now ask yourself, would Couture have the same role if he were playing in EDM, COL, Tampa, or any other top contender. I don't think so. The role he would play on those teams would be middle six and about $3m less in salary. Would MEV fit in any of those teams?
The reality is big contracts need to bring more than what we are getting from our big contracts. So what I believe GMMG's is doing is collecting assets that are either easy to move in the future or develop into NHL talent while those big contracts age off the books.
The direction the league is trending is to younger, faster, more creative players. The top talent on our Sharks are dinosaurs in comparison. I hate to say that but that is what we have and our record testifies to it. What we have is DW's legacy and GMMG needs change it.
Well reasoned and grounded comment NB. This team is now in the end stages of the "old regime's" decisions and agreements. What we're all witnessing is the "be careful what you ask for" results of a true rebuild. People, including myself, wanted DW to step down when the team's performance began to degrade. We wanted new coaches to "fix" whatever ailed the team. Well, check and check. Here we are, and the team has been in a downward spiral ever since. While I still believe the return for Timo is at first glance underwhelming, we really won't know how it looks until 2-3 years from now. I can only hope that SJ doesn't end up being the next AZ Coyotes, perpetually going through resets/refreshes/retools - or whatever the hell SJ Management wants to call it - and never achieving a return to relevance. I completly agree with you guys just in my opinion Grier is not doing this very efficently and scoundering the precious litle valueable resources the franchise have, and throwing stuff to the wall end se what happens. I have the same fear as well becoming the next desert dogs. I really whish to hear what was the vision Grier that presented to Platner that got him the job and how far leash he has. LIke we are playoff caliber team in 4 years 5 ? 8? What is the time table. My biggest fear is we end up with top end talent in this draft the managment trade everyone for nothing and we end up like Buffalo with Eichel.... Because the GM has unrealistic dinosaur vision of the game... Meanwhile the only opportunity to get something for Karlsson is gone. Well played hand again i guess by Grier. I really hope and whish i am wrong about this.
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Post by dilacerated on Feb 28, 2023 19:49:53 GMT -8
I don't know guys i am starting lose my mind here. Anaheim get: 2024 3rd round pick (SJS) Sharks get:Henry Thrun Another bottom six 7th dman for future assets no problem he is BIG !!! Someone pls shoot me. Yeah another "huh" trade... Give up a third for a guy drafted fourth. Just don't see the need for this move. Use picks like that to move up the draft not trade for guys unlikely to ever reach the NHL.
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Post by jamnjon on Feb 28, 2023 23:48:22 GMT -8
I don't know guys i am starting lose my mind here. Anaheim get: 2024 3rd round pick (SJS) Sharks get:Henry Thrun Another bottom six 7th dman for future assets no problem he is BIG !!! Someone pls shoot me. Yeah another "huh" trade... Give up a third for a guy drafted fourth. Just don't see the need for this move. Use picks like that to move up the draft not trade for guys unlikely to ever reach the NHL. I don't think it's necessarily fair to look at where a guy who was drafted to decide his value. He was drafted in 2019, so he's had time to develop. It's questionable if the Sharks could've gotten him for less since he's unlikely to sign with the Ducks, but since I read that he had skated in skating drills with Grier (in the comments on SJHN, not a reliable source) and the Sharks' depth at LD is much shallower (increasing his odds of reaching the NHL team), he's more likely to sign with us. Sheng is "hearing that Thrung is intrigued with opportunity with #SJSharks" and Sheng's moderately confident he'll sign here. I do think we sometimes overvalue picks. Regardless of my oft-repeated comments about the Sharks in the third round, the odds of a third rounder becoming an NHL regular are really not that great for any team in the league. THG did a video recently and between 2012 and 2019 42 third round picks became NHL regulars (he didn't define his methodology of what an NHL regular was) out of roughly 243 players, so a bit better than 1 in 6 odds (17.28%). Defense generally takes longer to get to the NHL so a 2024 third rounder used on defense would likely be at least 4-5 years out from making the NHL. We're just taking someone who has gone through a bit of that timeline.
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Post by dilacerated on Mar 1, 2023 20:18:21 GMT -8
Yeah another "huh" trade... Give up a third for a guy drafted fourth. Just don't see the need for this move. Use picks like that to move up the draft not trade for guys unlikely to ever reach the NHL. I don't think it's necessarily fair to look at where a guy who was drafted to decide his value. He was drafted in 2019, so he's had time to develop. It's questionable if the Sharks could've gotten him for less since he's unlikely to sign with the Ducks, but since I read that he had skated in skating drills with Grier (in the comments on SJHN, not a reliable source) and the Sharks' depth at LD is much shallower (increasing his odds of reaching the NHL team), he's more likely to sign with us. Sheng is "hearing that Thrung is intrigued with opportunity with #SJSharks" and Sheng's moderately confident he'll sign here. I do think we sometimes overvalue picks. Regardless of my oft-repeated comments about the Sharks in the third round, the odds of a third rounder becoming an NHL regular are really not that great for any team in the league. THG did a video recently and between 2012 and 2019 42 third round picks became NHL regulars (he didn't define his methodology of what an NHL regular was) out of roughly 243 players, so a bit better than 1 in 6 odds (17.28%). Defense generally takes longer to get to the NHL so a 2024 third rounder used on defense would likely be at least 4-5 years out from making the NHL. We're just taking someone who has gone through a bit of that timeline. Eh, I'm not suggesting using the pick to actually pick in the third. I'm suggesting adding picks from the third to the seventh in deals to move up/acquire players with. Anyhow maybe he'll pan out into something but that's to be determined.
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